The Q3 Earnings Calendar That Actually Matters

Earnings season has a rhythm that rarely changes. Banks first, semiconductors and European industrials next, megacap technology in a compressed three-day window at the end of October, pharmaceuticals last. Knowing the running order is half of trading it.

Phase one: the banks

JPMorgan reports on 13 October and, as usual, functions as the market's first hard read on the rate cycle. Net interest income guidance and loan-loss provisioning tell you what the largest US lender expects the economy to do over the following two quarters — information that arrives before any macro release covering the same period.

Phase two: the AI supply chain

ASML on 14 October and TSMC on 15 October between them describe the state of global chip capacity. ASML's order book runs two years ahead of shipment; TSMC's monthly revenue and quarterly gross margin describe what is actually being fabricated now. When those two diverge, the divergence is the story.

Phase three: the megacaps

Alphabet on 22 October, Microsoft on 27 October, Meta on 28 October, Apple and Amazon on 29 October. Four of the five will be judged on capital-expenditure guidance rather than earnings, because that guidance is the demand forecast for everything upstream of them.