Brent crude above $100 a barrel looks like a conventional supply shock. The physical evidence is less simple. Middle East export volumes have recovered close to their pre-war level, while tanker rates, insurance costs and refinery bottlenecks have become the marginal price setters. Reuters reports that daily charter costs for very large crude carriers rose from roughly $30,000 before the disruption to as much as $1.2 million. Oil is available, but moving and processing it has become radically more expensive.
A barrel at origin is not a barrel delivered
The G7 said on 2 October that members would release 100 million barrels from strategic stocks, with diesel front-loaded within 20 days and the full release spread over four months. That can add prompt supply and calm inventories. It cannot instantly create tankers, refinery conversion capacity, port slots or affordable war-risk cover. Shuttle systems and longer routes also use more vessels for the same delivered volume. The constraint therefore sits between production and consumption, not only at the wellhead.
Policy aimed at production will miss the expensive middle
Governments often answer a price spike by asking producers for more crude. That response is weak when refineries cannot absorb the grade offered or when the freight chain is saturated. A logistics-led premium should be analysed through delivered margins: crude price, voyage cost, insurance, refinery utilisation and product inventories. It also redistributes earnings. Producers may not capture the full increase, while tanker owners, refiners with usable spare capacity and secure pipeline operators can gain pricing power.
Track delivered costs, not only headline inventories
The next test is whether tanker rates and middle-distillate cracks fall as the reserve release reaches the market. Investors should watch vessel availability, war-risk premiums, port delays, refinery outages and regional diesel stocks alongside Brent. If exports remain high but delivered product prices stay elevated, the market is confirming a transport and conversion shortage. Strategic stocks can buy time. Restoring cheaper logistics is what removes the premium.
How to use this analysis
Source and verification note
The reporting base for this article is G7 leaders' statement on global energy security and market stability and International Energy Agency: Executive Director participates in G7 energy meeting and Reuters: oil's new problem is logistics rather than supply. The link is provided to the source page or release so readers can check the reporting period, definitions and later revisions. Figures are not extended beyond the source's geographic or institutional scope, and forecasts remain labelled as expectations until an official release records the outcome.